Wang Jixiang: review of China's logistics equipment industry in 2017 and prospects for 2018
- 2018-04-25 13:35
- Logistics equipment, cold chain storage, distribution, logistics, robot, electricity supplier
The development of China's logistics equipment industry in 2017
?
1. Macro economic environment analysis
In 2017, the national economy was stable and better than expected, and its economic vitality, power and potential were constantly released. Stability, coordination and sustainability were obviously enhanced, and a stable and healthy development was achieved. The annual GDP of 827122 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. The added value of manufacturing industry, which is closely related to the logistics technology and equipment industry, increased by 7.2%, the added value of high-tech industry increased by 13.4%, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.3%, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 10.2% over the previous year, and the national online retail volume increased by 32.2% over the previous year, and the growth rate exceeded the average growth of the national economy.
In 2017, China's supply side structural reform was further promoted, and the transformation and upgrading achieved new results. "Three go down, one reduction and one subsidy" is a solid step forward. Annual production capacity of steel and coal has been successfully completed. The national industrial capacity utilization rate was 77%, a record high of 5 years. In the field of new and old kinetic energy conversion, the added value of industrial strategic emerging industries increased by 11% in 2017, 4.4 percentage points faster than the industry, the output of industrial robots increased by 68.1% compared with the previous year, and the growth of new energy vehicles was 51.1%. The economic structure continues to be optimized.
In general, the national economic development in 2017 was in line with our initial forecast in early 2016. It continued the trend of steady, steady, steady and good development. The overall situation was better than expected. All areas closely related to the logistics technology and equipment industry were higher than the speed of national economic growth, in the rapid development trend, for 2017. The development of China's logistics technology and equipment industry has created a very good development environment.
Figure 1: statistical analysis of macroeconomic growth for 2004-2017 years
From the perspective of economic policy, in 2017, a series of macroeconomic policies for logistics development were introduced. First, from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the series of planning closely related to the development of logistics, such as "e-commerce logistics 13th Five-Year development plan", "commercial logistics 13th Five-Year development plan", "postal service 13th Five-Year plan", "grain logistics 13th Five-Year according to the plan" and other important policies;
Second, multiple ministries and commissions in 2017, jointly promoting the policy of logistics development, such as "guidance on promoting the quality of logistics service promotion" jointly issued by the 11 ministries and commissions such as the State Quality Supervision Bureau and the 10 ministries and commissions, such as the State Post Bureau, jointly issued the guiding opinions on the collaborative promotion of the green packaging work of the express industry. The 5 departments of the Ministry of Commerce, such as the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "special action plan for urban and rural high efficiency distribution", the Ministry of Commerce and other 10 departments jointly issued "on the promotion of standard tray development unit logistics" and so on.
Third, China's logistics development has risen to the national strategy, and the policy of promoting logistics development has been released from the State Council level. For example, the general office of the State Council has published "guidance on actively promoting innovation and application of supply chain", "suggestions on accelerating the development of cold chain logistics to ensure food safety and promotion of consumption", "suggestions on further promoting the efficiency of logistics reduction and promoting the development of the real economy" and so on.
The fourth is that in the nineteen major reports, modern logistics industry has been incorporated into the infrastructure category of national priority development, and the modern supply chain is used as a field to form new kinetic energy by cultivating new growth points. The intensive introduction of various policies has a positive impact on the logistics technology and equipment industry, and is conducive to the rapid development of China's logistics technology and equipment.
2, the analysis of the industry development environment
The logistics industry is the most influential industry for logistics technology and equipment. In 2017, the total amount of social logistics in China was 252 trillion and 800 billion yuan, the freight volume in the country reached 479 million tons, the express service volume exceeded 40 billion, and all in the world was the first. China has been the world's largest logistics country.
Manufacturing industry is still the main source of demand for logistics technology and equipment, and the consumption field has become a new kinetic energy demand for logistics technology and equipment market. In 2017, total industrial logistics amounted to 235 trillion yuan, accounting for 92.7% of the total social logistics. With the growth of China's consumption, consumer logistics has become an important driving force for logistics demand. In 2017, the total logistics total of Chinese units and residents increased by 29.9%, far higher than the growth rate of other logistics demand. The structure of production and consumption logistics tends to be optimized.
High tech industry and intelligent manufacturing are the hot demand of logistics technology and equipment industry. With the rapid development of high-tech industry and intelligent manufacturing in the industrial field, the consumption field has paid more attention to the logistics demand and service experience, the rapid development of logistics technology and equipment, and the quick start of the intelligent logistics. Intelligent logistics provides new space for logistics technology innovation through collaborative and shared innovation mode and advanced technology of artificial intelligence. Through intelligent logistics empowerment, intelligent allocation of logistics resources, optimization of logistics links and reduction of resource waste will greatly enhance the efficiency of logistics operation. In particular, the application of artificial intelligence technology in unmanned, unmanned storage, unmanned distribution, logistics robot and other frontiers has achieved rapid development in 2017.
Market demand analysis of China's logistics technology and equipment in two and 2017
In a comprehensive view, in recent years, e-commerce, medicine, clothing, automobiles, household appliances, new energy, food, home building materials, tobacco, military and other industries have a great demand for logistics equipment, and their characteristics are different. In the garment industry, the change of business model forces clothing enterprises to accelerate the logistics system in the field of circulation; automobile enterprises actively explore intelligent manufacturing and upgrade the upstream and downstream of the supply chain; the pharmaceutical business logistics center attaches importance to the introduction of "goods to people" system, and the pharmaceutical industry pays attention to logistics automation and intelligent upgrading; the household appliance industry is adding The construction of intelligent logistics system is carried out at a rapid pace; home vendors and furniture manufacturers are speeding up the automation, information and intelligent upgrading of logistics; a new round of large-scale logistics system construction in the tobacco industry is on the agenda, and the e-commerce logistics has entered the intelligent logistics in an all-round way.
1. E-commerce logistics is the hot spot of logistics technology and equipment
The rapid development of the electricity supplier in 2017 set off a boom in the development of e-commerce logistics technology and equipment. There are two major development paths for e-commerce logistics technology and equipment. One is the rapid formation of logistics brain intelligence system based on a large number of data, cloud computing and Internet of things. One is to vigorously carry out the construction of logistics facilities, accelerate the automation of logistics, upgrade the intelligence, and realize the unmanned whole process from the warehousing, storage, packing and sorting. The development of technology. At present, the two big e-commerce giants, headed by Ali and Jingdong, are the important support for their industry status by logistics, and they have developed comprehensively on the two path, but have their own advantages.
According to the incomplete statistical analysis, we think that in 2017, the demand for the logistics technology and equipment market in China's e-commerce has surpassed the traditional pharmaceutical, tobacco, clothing, automobile, household electrical appliances and other industrial fields, not only the market ratio is the first, but also the growth rate is the first. Preliminary estimates, in 2017, China's e-commerce logistics for logistics technology and equipment market demand growth rate of over 35%.
(2) manufacturing is still the main demand of logistics technology and equipment.
With the comprehensive promotion of Chinese intelligent manufacturing 2025, intelligent manufacturing has become the development direction of the manufacturing industry. As the core component of the intelligent factory, intelligent logistics system presents four major development characteristics: first, the whole process is digitized, two is networked, all kinds of equipment are connected through the Internet of things and Internet technology; three is high. Flexible automation, including the flexibility of the logistics operation process, hardware and the layout of the system; four is intelligent, through a variety of equipment to link the production link wisdom, so that it has the ability of autonomous decision-making. In recent years, the raw material logistics, finished product logistics and production logistics of manufacturing enterprises need to be upgraded in an all-round way. Among them, new energy vehicles and other fields are hot spot of market demand. Traditional medicine, tobacco, automobile manufacturing, smart home appliances, smart home products and other manufacturing areas continue to show a strong demand trend. A comprehensive analysis shows that the market demand for logistics technology and equipment in manufacturing industry has increased by more than 18%.
(3) consumption upgrading promotes the demand for cold chain logistics technology and equipment continues to rise.
Experts predict that the scale of China's cold chain logistics market will reach 430 billion yuan in 2017, and will grow at an annual rate of 17%. Food manufacturing, retail, wholesalers three types of customers now occupy the top three cold chain logistics demand, fresh electricity, convenience stores, catering enterprises have greater growth potential. The construction of cold chain logistics capability can be divided into one Skynet (information platform) and four ground networks (storage center, trunk line transportation, urban short barge, B2C home delivery).
In 2017, the development of e-commerce to new retail, a large number of new retail forms and new species hatched, of which fresh cold chain is the main battlefield of new retail logistics innovation. The new retail industry reconstructs people, goods and markets, and requests logistics services to be fast and accurate. As a basic support, the logistics system accelerates to the direction of automation and intellectualization. New retail demand for logistics technology and equipment is modular, flexible and miniaturized. In 2017, the first year of new retail sales, the demand for logistics technology and equipment in the new retail industry was in the initial stage of explosion, but the growth base was still very small.
Analysis of the development of China's logistics equipment industry in two and 2017
The evolution process of global logistics technology and equipment can be roughly divided into the period of mechanization, automation, high flexibility automation and the development of intelligent logistics. At present, the demand of logistics equipment market in China is very different, the demand level is very high, and the logistics equipment coexist for a long time. At present, the main features are automation as the mainstream and the development stage of the trend of wisdom. There are intelligent equipment innovation, enterprise cross-border development, logistics standardization promotion, capital integration plus. New changes and new trends in drama, enterprise symbiosis and so on.
(1) system integration
?Intelligent logistics has promoted the rapid development of logistics system integration market, and the integrated business is exploring and layout around intelligent logistics. With the increasing demand for logistics efficiency and the development of logistics center from local automation to full automation and even unmanned direction, the market demand of automatic logistics system, such as tray automatic warehouse, transportation system, sorting system, and so on, is further increased, and the shuttle system, AGV, robot and so on are more flexible. Dynamic logistics system has also been applied more and more. In the intelligent software, the integrators pay more attention to the improvement of the WMS and WCS system software capabilities, and use the cloud computing technology to enable it to support the operation of the super large logistics system, and cover the online production logistics system and the logistics distribution center operation management. "Integrated solutions" and "one-stop services" are the core concepts of system integrators serving customers.
According to the survey and analysis, the market size of the key enterprises of logistics system integrators in 2017 is expanding rapidly and the growth rate is around 30%-40%. We think that the sales growth rate of China's logistics system integration field is about 30% in 2017. By the end of December 2017, there are more than more than 4300 nationally automated warehouse insurance. The construction of the annual three-dimensional library is more than 700.
(2) logistics robot
At present, the development of the logistics robot industry is very rapid. From the CeMAT Asia exhibition in 2017, we can feel the fire degree of the market. The three kinds of enterprises, logistics system integrators, traditional robot enterprises and new logistics robot enterprises, have brought new products and new industry application display, showing the continuous upgrading and development of technology. In recent years, mobile robots, stacking robots, sorting robots and other warehouse robots have become increasingly popular in various industries.
From the technical direction of the storage robot, the top layer: developing a unified integrated scheduling management platform for warehousing robots based on the warehouse business process and the characteristics of various equipment; middle layer: increasing the type of robot, such as automatic picking robot, belt conveying and handling robot, heavy load type robot; bottom: accompanying robot vision With the development of environmental perception, sensor, chip, communication and other technologies, a new type of robot operating platform is created. For example, the robot can not only communicate with the server, but also realize communication between robots, robots and other devices, and develop in the direction of more automation and low power consumption.
According to the "2017 China robot industry development report" released by the China Electronics Society, in 2017, China shipped more than 120 thousand robots. According to our incomplete survey, it is estimated that the sales volume of all kinds of logistics robots in China in 2017 is more than 12 thousand.
?
(3) forklift
2017 is an important moment in the course of the development of the forklift industry in China. The industry has experienced a super high speed growth, both domestic and export set up a new high, and the whole series of forklift cars grew generally, which brought 496738 overall sales in the whole year, up 34.23% compared to the same period in 2016; 371013 in domestic market compared to 2016. The same period increased by 38.51%, and exports reached 125725 units, representing an increase of 23% over the whole year in 2016.
The forklift industry presents the following major features in the year: first, the proportion of forklift trucks made in China is further promoted in the world, the proportion is close to 40% (including foreign capital in China); the two is the widespread concern of the electric, storage, new energy and intelligent forklift trucks, the market opportunity has come, and the three is the further raising of the concentration of the industry. High, leading enterprises have obvious advantages in the key competitiveness of technology, cost, channel, service and other key competitiveness. Four, the cost of artificial and raw materials is increased, the market competition is further intensified and the profit level has fallen; the five is the post forklift market, the full value chain of forklift trucks, and the concern of the forklift enterprises.
Product type: Warehousing forklift continues to maintain high growth. Some small tonnage internal combustion balanced heavy forklift trucks will be replaced by electric and new energy forklift trucks. Forklift AGV and traction vehicles will be further released in future technical breakthroughs and lower cost after cost reduction. In the past, the market of the forklift truck is the main market. With the increase of customer demand, the share of mid forklift truck will increase further.
?
(4) shelf
In 2017, the shelf market was booming, and many shelves factories were in a state of capacity saturation. Many shelves enterprises try to expand storage automation, logistics system integration and other new business areas. Shelf products have been standardized and serialized. From the product type, the common crossbeam, partition and attic shelves have considerable market demand, especially the high speed development of electric business brings the higher attic shelf system.
From the shelf demand, in 2017, e-commerce logistics, clothing logistics, pharmaceutical logistics, fast goods logistics, high-end manufacturing and other fields are the main industry of high-end shelf demand, the market demand is growing faster. Machinery, automobiles, electronics and other industries grew steadily. It is estimated that the annual production and sales volume will exceed 12 billion 900 million yuan in 2017, up 29% over the same period last year.
(5) transportation and sorting
The conveying and sorting equipment emphasizes modularization to achieve efficient production and quick installation and debugging. At the same time, it achieves low cost and low maintenance through standardization. Leading enterprises in 2017 launched a modular platform strategy. For example, the fifth generation of Modular Intelligent conveyor platform i-G5, based on the Internet of things, has the five features of intelligence, flexibility, beauty, Czechoslovakia, green, high speed transport performance, efficient operation efficiency, rapid delivery cycle, convenient installation and debugging, and the intnno modular platform simplifies the assembly process of each component. Plug and play ensures fast and reliable delivery and facilitates the planning and implementation of material delivery solutions. The Southern China new sea (Hongsbelt) is an international leading enterprise using module belt sorting technology, and its modular module belt logistics sorting system has also received extensive attention from the logistics industry.
From the technical point of view, it is necessary to develop an automatic sorting system that can handle various types and shapes in the future, such as how to use plastic bags to achieve rapid transmission and sorting; improve the efficiency of the system, especially the efficiency of the automatic sorting system of the sorting system; transport sorting equipment and mobile robots (AGV The combination application has been concerned; the module selecion and sorting system of Southern China new sea (Hongsbelt) has been developing rapidly in express sorting.
According to the monitoring, the market demand of the transportation and sorting equipment industry is increasing at a high speed. In 2017, the growth is expected to be over 35%, and the market size is over 7 billion yuan.
(6) unit product
Driven by the Ministry of Commerce's efforts to promote the standardization of trade and logistics, the logistics unit and standardization become the trend of development. As the basic equipment of unit logistics, pallets, turnover boxes and other products have been widely used, and market demand has risen sharply. With the rapid development of automation and intelligent logistics system, higher requirements have been put forward for the specification, size, material, style, traceability and application mode of the unit product.
Pallet is the most important unit product. Since 2017, the growth rate of pallet industry has risen steadily. According to the research and analysis of enterprises, we estimate that the growth rate of the growth rate of pallet production in China in 2017 is about 8%. Considering the tray renewal factor, the number of pallets in China is estimated to be close to 1 billion 200 million.
According to the survey and calculation, the growth of standard pallet production and sales in China's pallet production and sales in 2017 has continued to grow fast, and the growth rate is far higher than the growth rate of pallets under the impetus of the China Trade and trade logistics standardization action plan. The growth rate is expected to exceed 15%, and the standard pallet production and sales account for more than 37%.
?
Prospects for the development of China's logistics technology and equipment in three and 2018
In 2018, with the transformation of China's economic structure, China's manufacturing industry developed towards high quality and intelligence, providing huge market space for the logistics equipment industry. The increase of labor costs, the shortage of workers at the grass-roots level in the logistics industry, and the continuous promotion of the mechanization of logistics industry, the development of logistics mechanization, automation and intelligentization will continue to develop rapidly. In the field of consumption, the upgrading of consumption promotes the rapid development of new retail, and online shopping providers will still maintain a relatively fast growth rate. from the economic policy point of view, since 2018, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies to promote the development of logistics, such as the 10 ministries and commissions jointly issued the "promotion of standard tray development unit logistics" and other policies.
The macro economic development environment and the development trend of various industries in 2018 are comprehensively analyzed. It is predicted that the demand for the electronic commerce logistics will continue to increase rapidly in 2018. The field of intelligent manufacturing is still the hot spot of the demand of logistics technology and equipment, and the logistics technology and equipment industry is facing a good macro economic environment and industrial policy environment.
However, in 2018, China's economy was also faced with greater uncertainty. Recently, Sino US trade friction was fierce, and the trade war had begun. The list of tax added products issued by the United States is concentrated in the field of Intelligent Manufacturing in China. If China and the United States open a trade war, it will have an impact on the export of Chinese high-tech products and have a negative impact on the development of the macro-economy.
based on the comprehensive analysis of the market demand environment in 2018, we think that the growth of China's logistics technology and equipment industry in 2018 is higher than the national economic development speed, the overall growth is about 25%, of which the overall growth rate of the common forklift and shelf will fall down, is expected to be about 17%, but the transportation and sorting equipment, the automated warehouse, AGV and so on Advanced logistics equipment, such as various logistics robots, intelligent shuttle cars, express delivery intelligent logistics boxes, standardized pallets and three-dimensional warehouse shelves, continue to maintain high speed growth, and the overall growth rate is about 30%.
Source: Wang Jixiang