Investment logistics real estate? Are you aware of these three directions?

?Demand for electricity business growth slowed down, consumer demand for logistics is still dominant

Although the growth of the electricity business sector began to enter a period of steady growth, online retail sales increased from 49.7% in 2014 to 26.1% in the first three quarters of 2016, but the electricity industry will remain the largest tenant of China's high standard warehouse market in 2017. Some rapid expansion of the electricity business due to lack of logistics capacity and outside the logistics outsourcing services to promote the tripartite logistics company to become another major logistics industry tenants.

As an important branch of electricity providers, cross-border electricity business in the "three five" during the compound growth rate is expected to reach 16.5%, to promote its sustained growth is the fundamental driving force in the trend of consumer spending on high-quality goods growing demand And the current domestic supply of goods does not match.

The April 1616 cross-border electricity tax and regulation of the New Deal brought some uncertainty to the industry outlook, but the introduction of the policy transitional period in May and the further extension of the transition period to the end of 2017 in November Environmental operators in 2017 to maintain a high growth rate, and led to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dalian, Chengdu and other cross-border electricity business comprehensive pilot area to set up the city's bonded warehouse demand growth.

Together with the electricity business, line retail, fast moving consumer goods and automotive and other consumer goods industry will remain the absolute main demand for storage in 2017. The recent good performance of the automotive industry is worth mentioning. By the small displacement of vehicle vehicle purchase tax by half of the 5% levy, 2016, January-November domestic automobile production and sales were up 14.3% and 14.1%, and a record high.

Local major infrastructure construction and industrial planning, often to the regional logistics system has brought new growth points.

For example, the issuance of China-Europe-China-Sri Lanka-Lancaster Express Rail traffic will increase from 400 to 2017 in 2016 to more than 1,000, and the layout of the three international routes will help enhance the foreign trade of the western region and the European countries, development of.
Supply side of the city land bottleneck is still part of the second - tier cities continue to heavy volume

As of the end of 2016, CBRE covered 16 major cities in China, the total volume of 22.29 million square meters, the new supply of 3.05 million square meters, the overall vacancy rate over the end of 2015 rose 1.5 percentage points to 16.9%. 2016 high standard warehouse net absorption of about 2.6 million square meters, down 24%.

In 2016, north of Guangzhou and Shenzhen four first-tier cities in the primary supply of land for a total of only 320,000 square meters, less than 15% of Chongqing. In the context of increasingly scarce construction land, the first-tier cities in the supply of land supply situation will undoubtedly continue in 2017.

In addition, the government in the hands of the transfer of more aimed at the terminal business; 2016 logistics developers to obtain the primary logistics land only accounted for 22.3% of the total supply of first-tier urban land.

In addition, the first-tier cities of logistics demand spillovers are driving the surrounding three or four lines of urban logistics real estate construction.

For example, Shanghai two-hour economic circle of Nantong and Jiaxing is 2016 provinces in the province's largest supply of land for the city, the current construction of the high standard of the warehouse were 36 million and 210,000 square meters.

Second-tier cities of the land supply is relatively abundant, and down to the high standard warehouse market. We can see that Tianjin, Chengdu, Chongqing, Suzhou, the four pre-land supply of large cities will account for 2017 new high-quality storage of the total area of ??52%.

The location analysis of the second-tier cities' new high-standard warehouse shows that a large number of new supply will be located in the emerging logistics areas of the cities, while the supply of the traditional logistics plate is limited, which is the city's external expansion, the central city function re-positioning process The inevitable trend.

2017 major city logistics warehouse supply

Rent surface supply and demand imbalance led to the performance of the city differentiation

2017, first-tier cities in general demand will push its high standard warehouse rents continue to rise, north of Guangzhou and Shenzhen four cities rent is expected to rise between 2% -5.6%.

But need to pay attention to the first-tier cities will be different between the plate differentiation, in Shanghai Waigaoqiao, Guangzhou Huangpu and other individual short-term vacancy rate of high areas, developers for high-quality tenants to give some bargaining space.

Second-tier cities, Chengdu, Wuhan and Chongqing, the warehouse rent will be due to oversupply and short-term adjustment, in some other pressure to the larger cities of the new project to the time will be lengthened, the characteristics of the tenant market will gradually appear. Overall, most urban rents will slow in 2017.

New technology meets the future

The growing demand for intelligent warehouses for tenants will catalyze the use of new technologies in warehouses and lead the way in the future development of warehouse hardware. From a longer-term perspective, the intelligence of the warehouse industry will further drive the developer's role as a comprehensive service provider to provide solutions.

For example, relying on cloud computing, load analysis, radio frequency identification and other new technologies, widely used intelligent sorting system, robot intelligent warehouse, the warehouse will be high, load, unloading platform configuration put forward higher requirements.

We understand that some retail tenants have a height and load-bearing demand for smart three-dimensional warehouses of 22 m and 7.5 t / m, respectively, much higher than the typical high-standard 9-meter-high and 3 tonne / The

Some of the tenants' interest in LEED certification warehouses will enable cold storage technology and rooftop solar technology to be rapidly gaining popularity in warehouses.