Second half of the coastal shipping market gradually into the pattern of weakness

The first half of 2016, under the steady growth, loose monetary policy, the domestic macro-economic stabilization and bottoms, coastal shipping market is warming trend. Due to inventory investment picked up, the market is expected to pick up positive factors like commodity trading market heat increased transport demand in downstream industries recover, coastal shipping market supply and demand conditions improve, tariffs bottomed out, shipping companies focus on cost control , significantly reduced the extent of losses, operating pressure slightly eased.

Coastal capacity supply market slow growth

Since last year coastal shipping market volatility, investors elusive development, buyers and sellers have to wait and see attitude. Affected by this, the number of shipping companies to maintain growth shipbreaking, Used boats more inquiry but the shrinking turnover, new shipbuilding orders fell sharply, domestic coastal capacity growth slowed down. According to shipping monitoring and analysis platform statistics, as of early June, the number of vessels operating in coastal basically unchanged, tonnage rose 1.1% reduction in capacity scale growth.


The main types of coastal cargo transport demand slow recovery

First half of the economic situation improved, the real estate industry to rebound significantly in easing monetary policy, but the metallurgical industry is still weaker. Data show that from January to June the national real estate development investment grew by 6.1%; the national steel production increased by 1.1%. In this context, a slight increase in electricity power plants, however, by increasing the effects of rainfall this year, hydropower generation continued to rise, thermal power generation capacity is squeezed to reduce the amount of coal power plants, coastal coal transport demand weakened.

On the other hand, thanks to the real estate industry to pick up, expect to see more strong downstream steel trading market continues to heat up enthusiasm for production increase of steel prices, strong demand for raw materials such as iron ore, iron ore prices as steel prices climb sharply. Until the end of April, the withdrawal of funds in the futures market speculation and the exchange of new regulations introduced for delivery together, slow down steel prices purchase frequency, iron ore prices fell. Affected coastal iron ore demand from fast falling fast, the whole is still in a downward trend.

Coal, iron ore demand malaise contrast, crude oil and refined coastal transport needs have remained stable. Low oil prices in the international influence of China's crude oil imports to maintain growth, from January to June crude oil imports rose 14.2%, while domestic demand boosted by various kinds of petrochemical products, gasoline, diesel and kerosene production are steady growth, while Sinopec the relevant industrial sectors also remain operational. Overall, the main coastal ports oil throughput remained stable state.

The main types of coastal cargo tariffs upward shocks

Coastal coal freight transport market Xianyihouyang. Early pessimistic market expectations, coal freight rates remain down market until the second quarter, producing a substantial tightening of coal supply, stimulate the downstream procurement initiative, coal freight lines along the way. According to statistical analysis platform to monitor shipping in June, Huanghua - Ningbo, Qinhuangdao - Ningbo and Jingtang - Yangzhou coal freight was 25 yuan / ton, 26.5 yuan / ton and 24 yuan / ton, compared to last year is still 3 yuan gap.

Coastal transport of iron ore freight market stabilized stabilized. With the steel market situation has improved, the spot price of iron ore futures sharply higher, spot purchases business growth, coastal shipping market supply and demand tensions eased, the market decline to suspend tariffs. In June, Qingdao - Zhangjiagang, Ningbo - Zhoushan and Zhenjiang - Zhangjiagang iron ore freight rates were 20 yuan / ton, 17 yuan / ton and 18 yuan / ton, compared with last year rose slightly.

Coastal refined oil freight transport market rose and then flat. Year, due to the rise in international oil prices revealed signs of hoarding goods have lower freight market crashed to rise. Since then, gasoline and diesel consumption as expected, the social inventory consumption is too slow freight stabilized. Shipping monitoring and analysis platform data show that the first half of the main refined oil route Qingdao - Lianyungang, Ningbo - Yantai, Ningbo - Wenzhou tariffs were stable at 30 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton and 50 yuan / ton.

Expectation

With the capacity to carry out strict, iron and steel, coal and other industries cut production efforts to strengthen control, lower purchasing demand growth is weak. At the same time, factors of marine fuel prices rising, large port raise ship emissions requirements, the international environmental regulations still further embodiment of a backlog of shipping and other corporate profit margins, forcing shipping companies have to pay more in fuel costs as well as environmental protection equipment the purchase and installation costs blurred face of unpredictable market conditions, shipping companies have to go through storage capacity section, layoffs, and other ways to reduce costs against revenue in the low market demand reduced, some enterprises directly stopping, filed for bankruptcy.

Although the extent of the first half of the shipping business losses weakened, but the market outlook, the majority of shipping companies are still optimistic about the conservative mentality still dominant. Ningbo economic indicators from the editorial board of the shipping enterprise feedback situation, 7% of enterprises believe that the future of the shipping industry will go in a positive direction, and at the end of last year, an increase of 7 percent compared to 30 percent while still shipping companies believe that the future market will We will continue to worsen, compared with late last year, a decrease of 19 percentage points. The second half of 2016 is expected to coastal shipping market gradually into the pattern of weakness, both supply and demand are low, the main coastal transport enterprises still control capacity, cost control approach to self-help.